I’ll own it. I’m hopelessly optimistic; about some things; and America is one of them. Our outlook seems bleak right now. Hell, our outlook is bleak. That’s because the forces opposed to American democracy have put all their cards on the table. We are living through their Hail Mary, last ditch chuck toward the end zone far, far downfield. We think our situation’s bleak because we think the ball arcing through the air is a 50-50. Either side could catch it and win the game. But, that simply ain’t so. Regardless of who catches this particular ball, the game’s already been decided – against the monarchists, authoritarians, fascists, white supremacists, racists, bigots, misogynists, sexual predators and professional assholes. Here in America, democracy has already won. We just don’t know it yet.

Now, as we’re learning, the democracy-haters had actually gone further – there in the shadows – than we realized. History and historians will tell future generations how concerted and pre-imagined parts of this plan were. By “plan”, I don’t mean some document filled with specifics. I mean a “cultural goal”. Like Newt Gingrich deciding he’d no longer negotiate with Democrats.

In hindsight, Newt wasn’t an outlier, he was a precursor. Not the same thing.

What Do Conservatives Want?

Conservative Republicans are a cynical bunch. It’s their super power but also their kryptonite. Now, let’s first understand what conservative Republicans want. As their moniker says, conservatives want to “conserve”. The question is “what?” Well, that’s simple: conservatives want to conserve as much of “how things were then” as they can in “how things are now“. Conservatives want to conserve the past because, in their minds, the past was better for them than a changed future would be.

In America, wealthy, white Christian men dominated the past. To their credit, as rebellion rose in their hearts, they chose self-government over a new monarchy. But, not all the newly minted Americans wanted self-government. They didn’t want a new monarchy either; they wanted the old one. And their heirs have never stopped wanting it.

Our rich, white, Christian founders – the ones who won the day – had a terrific idea. But, even in triumph, they executed their terrific idea badly. Being Europeans, they were prone to European diseases including racism. Though they agreed that “all men are created equal”, they didn’t mean all men (though they did mean only men). They actually meant “most white men are relatively equal” and that was it.

Slavery’s acceptance remains our tragic flaw. It doesn’t have to be our fatal flaw though. The one thing that can prevent our original sin from killing us? Democracy.

No Country Like America

Prior to America, no country like America had ever existed. The Europeans all came from countries that themselves were the products of a thousand plus years of cultural formation. Scattered, often competing tribes slowly coalesced into nations: Germany, France, England, Spain.

Prior to Europeans landing in the Americas, these continents teemed with people and hardy, dynamic, extensive civilizations. I refer you to Charles Mann’s excellent “1491” for a great dive into the topic. As Jared Diamond points out in his equally excellent “Guns, Germs & Steel“, it wasn’t European guns or steel that destroyed the Native American peoples, it was European germs.

Had Europeans faced populations resistant to European pathogens, Europeans would have ended up staying in Europe. Their footholds would all have failed. Instead of conquering the Americas with brute force, the Europeans would have had to negotiate trade deals and military alliances.

What a different world we’d live in now.

America is less than 300 years old. In cultural terms, we’re still in our infancy. True, things happen much faster now than they did 300 years ago, but even so: American culture is transforming – growing up – learning hard but valuable lessons in real time.

What Is An “American” Anyway?

There’s another important distinction between American and Europe cultures. As all those tribes coalesced into their various nationalities, so, too, did a sense of nationality. Of a particular group of people becoming a particular thing. Germans becoming distinctly German. French becoming distinctly French. English becoming distinctly English.

No such thing has happened in America except among the Europeans (though even among the Europeans, there’s a pecking order).

Like I said, America is a great idea poorly executed. But a great idea first and foremost!

And that great idea has drawn people to America from the get-go.

Before America, no one had imagined a country where people could go to reinvent themselves. To rise above their caste. To get rich – provided they were willing to work for it. The idea appealed universally – and that’s why humans from all over the planet made it their mission to get here. And take their shot.

America is the first country ever borne of an idea. Human self-government. A republic – if we can keep it.

A Republic If We Can Keep It

Ben Franklin described us that way because, I suspect, he knew there were plenty in his social class who resented the American republic. The problem with democracy – if you’re a rich, white, Christian male holding the reins of power – is that democracy threatens your hold on those reins. So, naturally, you’re going to view democracy differently from someone who sees the potential to rise above their means in it.

If you’re conservative, you’re going to do everything you can to maintain your hold on the reins and deny everyone not like you the chance to (ever) hold those reins.

This is the stone cold bottom line. It’s why this day – this bleakness – was always going to happen. As America continued to diversify – and all those diverse, new Americans began to assert their newly acquired political power and money – the white people would imagine a tipping point.

Donald Trump provided it. I’m sure the Leonard Leos and Koch Brothers and Mercers and all the rest of the right wing money viewed and still view Trump with trepidation. He’s not one of them. He was merely the catalyst that set their cultural slow burn afire. Mitch McConnell (and Trump) captured the SCOTUS taking two Democratic appointments as their own. Flipping what the court’s actual balance should be.

Overturning Roe

Remember: the goal, while cultural in thrust, was specific in its destination – killing Roe. Overturning Roe was great for raising money and keeping the anti-democratic troops in line. The pro-life movement itself was an exercise in extreme racist cynicism. It has never given a toss about life.

From a certain perspective, you could say the conservative’s Hail Mary to end abortion in America has worked or is working. That’s today. Tomorrow, it won’t be the case. Have you noticed the trend lines exploding from every election since 2016?

Trump won – as Republicans always do – by deliberately suppressing the vote. Trump worked with Russia’s military intelligence, the GRU, to help suppress Americans from voting. That’s why Paul Manafort went to prison! It’s why Trump pardoned him! Take Russia out of the 2016 equation entirely and I betcha Trump loses handily – just like he expected to. As this blog has said repeatedly – with evidence – the GOP knew even before they nominated Trump that Putin paid him.

Trend Lines & Pollsters

More and more Americans have voted in every subsequent election since 2016. True, some of them have voted for Trump. But more – many more – have voted for Democrats. Even Republicans in Republican places have – more and more – voted with Democrats and for Democrats. Women and young voters have come out to vote in increasing numbers.

Now, pollsters don’t poll generically. All polls (theoretically) have a purpose and an intended audience. They’re asking what they’re asking for a particular purpose and with intended buyers in mind. So, when they get an interviewee on the phone (and who answers their phones under these circumstances?), the first thing the pollster must do is frame their poll.

“Hi, I’d like to ask you these questions today for the following purpose and with the following framing”. They don’t say that literally, of course, but, it is what they’re saying. Our problem – from outside the poll – that framing and the questions are all proprietary. We can’t know how the pollster framed their poll or their questions.

And therefore we can’t really know what any poll was actually asking. We have to take their word for it.

The evidence of late says pollsters don’t know how to deal with the current environment. That’s understandable. We’ve never been in this situation before! So, if you ask a question that assumes the world’s generic – or how it always was – you’re going to get answers that reflect circumstances different from ours.

You’ll get bullshit poll results. But, you won’t say that. Instead, you’ll hawk your poll results as eye-opening! Or you’ll claim they reflect new realities among the electorate. Oy.

Remember the very last election where Republicans basically did horribly everywhere? Take Virginia. The pollsters all predicted Republicans taking over the statehouse completely. The exact opposite happened.

Did any of the polling companies predict that? NO! They did NOT! And yet our news media treats them like they were Sybil.

Skin In The American Democracy Game

Are Gen Z voters in love with Joe Biden or the Democratic Party? No. They’re not in love with anything they’ve been handed. But, one thing about Gen Z voters? They’re intensely pragmatic. They’re facing actual existential crises – plural. The climate. Bodily freedoms. Democracy itself.

They know they have skin in this game. Disregard any cynicism they express to pollsters. Pollsters are not a voting booth. And – again – we don’t know how any pollster phrased their questions. And Gen-Zers don’t, as a rule, “talk to strangers” on their phones. Whatever their disappointment in the America handed them, as more Gen-Zers run for office and assume political power, they will absolutely fill whatever vacuum they encounter with their zeal for change.

Women are not going to stand idly by as cruel, hypocritical religionistas assail their bodies further. The religious right got what they want with Dobbs. They won’t like the blowback once it reaches full gale force. It hasn’t yet.

Finally, the conservative, white, Christian grab is going to rely on brute force to finish what mangling democracy started. But, America’s fascists and authoritarians have Germany and Hitler, Italy and Mussolini, Spain and Franco in their heads. America is none of those places. And, unless Trump can live forever, whatever toehold he can gain in destroying our democracy will never endure.

Take this to the bank: at some point, Trump will drop dead. He’s the corrupt glue holding a massive, corrupt, criminal enterprise together. Take away that glue and the corruption will start feeding on itself. Meanwhile, the iron grip American fascists envision simply won’t materialize.

Germany was filled with similar people who all considered themselves German. Same for Italy, Spain and every other longstanding European nation. While white America might be filled with millions of people who all feel white kinship with each other – also it’s filled with millions more who aren’t white and don’t feel kinship with white America.

America has simply diversified itself past the point where white people can successfully assert themselves over the rest of us. That’s not to say they can’t achieve a certain amount of their goal – but even those “wins” will be short term. Black people and Latinos won’t join together to suppress Asian people. Jews won’t bond with LGBTQ people to persecute Black people. At the moment where white people expect the group to police itself, the group will see white power as its enemy.

Yes, certain parts of the country will become the America every racist dreams about. The Confederacy never died there (and neither did the love for slavery). These pockets may endure for a long while, but they’ll never thrive. They’ll never become anything other than what they already are.

They won’t innovate solutions to their problems. They’ll stagnate more than they’ve already stagnated. They’ll never do what the rest of America does. And they sure won’t thrive in step with the rest of us.

Fascism works best in homogenous cultures.

Democracy works best when everyone eligible to vote votes – and where “everyone” is genuinely an expansive term.

I absolutely believe in American exceptionalism. Yeah, yeah – that’s just me being optimistic again. But, also it’s me being clear-eyed.

America is more diverse than any country ever was in the whole history of countries. That’s our secret sauce – diversity. It drives our dynamism and rejuvenates us constantly.

In 2024, a diverse, empowered electorate driven especially by women and youth, will decimate the GOP. Donald Trump is not going to win anything.

American democracy, on the other hand, absolutely will.